Weekly Market Commentary 7-20-2026

“Weak Demand from China Cushioned Oil Shock”
See what we have to say about the following:

 

 

 

 

• Weak Demand from China Cushioned Oil Shock – The sharp decline in China’s crude oil imports has helped offset oil price pressures from Middle East tensions, suggesting global demand weakness may be a larger driver of oil prices than supply disruptions.

 

• We Are Starting to Notice a Breakdown in USD–Import Price Relationship – While core U.S. inflation continues to moderate, rising import prices for industrial supplies, consumer goods, and Chinese products remain a potential source of future inflation pressure.

 

• Global Nowcasting Models Point to Above-Trend Growth for U.S., but Not China – The U.S. economy is expected to maintain above-trend growth supported by resilient consumers, healthy balance sheets, and strong AI-driven business investment, while China continues to face uneven growth and softer demand.

 

• STAAC Commentary (Asset Allocation Insights) – STAAC remains tactically overweight equities and underweight fixed income, favoring defensive equity exposures, higher-quality bond sectors, and alternative investments while remaining cautious on rate-sensitive fixed-income sectors.